It feels so good to win a game, and it's like an actually good win. We were a little bit sloppy, especially during the first half, but it was good that we didn't have one of our stupid little 3rd/4th quarter comeback gimmick against the (no offense) fucking Pelicans. They are by no means a bad team, just injured and short-staffed -- and Zion is still a freak of nature when it comes to sheer athletic ability and rim finishing. It's so crazy, like he looks like he's jumping higher than he was a year ago. Anyways, back to our Rockets.
A great offensive game last game against Indiana resulting in a loss to a great offensive and defensive game from Şengün leading us to a win -- and there's a reason for that this time: the double big lineup that Ime decided to give minutes to this game. Now, obviously it's a really small sample size to be drawing any absolute conclusions as to what this lineup's impact towards winning can be (it can be schemed around by opposing teams), but let's just look at the stats.
As you can see (even though only 12 minutes of this lineup have been logged) the Şengün-Adams lineups have a high net rating of 52.4, with a 157.1 offensive rating and a 104.8 defensive rating. This is because with Adams at the 5, Şengün is allowed to roam -- meaning the defensive responsibility to be the primary rim protector is alleviated, meaning he doesn't have to exert energy on having so many defensive responsibilities, as well as rebounding. And it shows: Şengün had an incredible defensive game today.
I would like to see more of this lineup, simply because I truly believe that you can get the most of Şengün's potential -- both defensively and offensively -- with him at the 4. Right now, we are asking too much of him at the 5 -- to rebound, to rim protect, to run the offense -- it's too much of a load on him on both ends that it might be worth trying these double-big lineups, just to see how successful it is. I mean, hey, a 52.4 net rating is impressive, even for only 12 minutes of playtime together. Ime, quit it with the small ball!
Tonight was Hello Kitty Night, and my guys let me and Bree down. Hello Kitty was in the building, and we lost.
I've been feeling kind of down this past (month-and-a-half?) stretch, even if we have been winning. It's crazy to think that this team was the number 2 seed in the West to now being number 4, which isn't bad by any means, but it feels like we haven't been playing to the peak of our abilities every since our hot start to the beginning of the season. I was willing to chalk it up to injury, since both our key starting/rotation players (Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet), were both out during negative winrate stretch, but now they are both back and there aren't really any more excuses -- well, okay, maybe there are.
I'll start off by giving props offensively to both Şengün and Jalen -- though we will come back to these two and their issues this game -- for giving a decently efficient game in terms of putting points on the scoreboard. It's cool that we were able to break 100 pts so that people in Toyota Center could have their free pizza. Şengün looked great with Fred back in terms of the pick n' roll offense: this is 'value' that Fred brings to the table when it comes to running an actual halfcourt offense. As I have stated before, we look lost out their when we're trying to set up plays without him. Şengün was also getting to the line a lot, which is a good thing because it gives us free points. However, he was not making his fucking free throws. He had 17 free throw attempts and was splitting them all game -- a measly 58.8% FT%. It's just disgusting to think that if he had made 70%, like his career average shows he does, we would have been at least up 5 points.
Then, there comes the issues with his defense. We looked terrible in the pick n' roll defense. Valančiūnas was getting to the basket off Monk/Lavine PnR's for what seemed like the entire game. Şengün, although he has improved defensively on the perimeter and as an overall rim protector, still struggles with the PnR defense due to his tendency to miss the roll man and drop below the basket, giving Valančiūnas space for an easy 2 points.
Here's the first point of contention: this starting lineup is not doing us any favors at least with reaching our defensive peaks that we reached earlier in the season. We're over halfway through; we have the data to show that we need Jabari as a weak-side rim protector and PnR defender.
Good job to Jalen for giving a baseline 'good' performance from the looks of the box score. I will commend him on that -- his biggest "issue" was never about his capability to achieve these kinds of numbers. It was always about the consistency. The agenda can at least stay alive for one more day. But man, if he is going to be our star player (which I believe he has the ability to do) he is going to have to step it up when the gap in points needs closing.
Here is a Jalen possession in the 4th quarter that results in a turnover:
As you can see, the processing here looks real bad. Amen sets a screen for Jalen to dribble to the right, and then Jalen attempts to pass to rolling Amen for a drive to the basket. The problem is that Valančiūnas immediately switches onto Jalen, which doesn't give Jalen the space to pass the ball to Amen or drive to the basket -- he takes way too long to make a decision and ends up passing it right into Jonas' arms, resulting in Keon Ellis gaining possession of the ball for a potential fast break points.
Here, Jalen really has three options: 1.) come off the screen and attempt to shoot a three, 2.) pass the ball to Jabari in the corner for a potential three (or just an extension of the play) or 3.) dribble the ball out back to the perimeter and try to run another set play. As already stated, he makes the worst choice and passes it away.
This isn't really the only issue with how he played. Look at this shot chart from the game (left).
This has always been the contention with Jalen Green in terms of reaching the next level -- his shot selection. 10 of his shots came from outside the perimeter, while 6 came from within the restricted area. Now, he produced just enough from three to make these shots look somewhat 'good', but he was not aggressive when it came to driving to the basket. Within the paint and restricted area was his most efficient shots, yet he opted for way too many threes during the stretch of the game.
Jalen has always had the physical tools to initiate scoring opportunities inside the perimeter: his quick first step, his verticality, his ability to decelerate, etc. But for some reason, he seems to always settle for shots outside the perimeter more than he does inside. Now, obviously with how this roster is constructed there isn't really enough spacing allowing for these kinds of drives, but there are times where opportunities show and he just doesn't capitalize on them.
Honestly, this game is pretty funny when you realize that the one guy that could have provided us the appropriate spacing was picked up by the opposing team this game -- I'm talking about Zach Lavine. I was a huge advocate for picking him up before the trade deadline. He was a 40% three point shooter, as well as being able to score at all three levels. He's a passable defender, and he provides pretty much exactly what we need to open up the floor. He doesn't push us into title contention, but he's definitely a piece that can be added to a team to make them better, especially us.
My first ever Big Board for the draft class this year. Was more locked in to college ball this year (though not as much as someone who actually does draft talk) but I thought it would be fun to throw my hat in the ring and make a contribution to the thousands of Big Boards before March Madness starts.
Here goes!
Not based off of potential team fit, simply how valuable they are as propsects.
Alright, after a 6 game losing streak, I'm definitely going to have to address the holes in this team during this losing stretch. First off, Fred's been out on an ankle injury and Jabari's been out on a hand injury. That's two of our starters, one being our premier ball-handler + floor general and the other being the lynch pin of our defense & rebounding. So I'm not going to take this loss streak too hard on the chin, but there are some very glaring flaws that the Rockets need to patch up if they are ever going to want to make a run for not only contention, but a deep playoff run.
Both Jalen and Şengün finally had good a good game together. It seemed for a while that Şengün was struggling offensively; he always seemed to start off slow in the first quarter and that would kind of dictate how the rest of the game would look for him. However, this game, he started slow and ended up with 30 points on pretty good efficiency for a center. I will say, he doesn't operate like most 5's do in the game, mostly because he's a touch-reliant player, and today his touch seemed to be pretty good down the stretch. He was hitting mid-range shots as well as one three this game.
Defensively, he still struggled, but he's the type of player to have to conserve energy on the defensive end to output on the other side of the court. That's the first major hole without Jabari: we don't have a bona fide rim protector. Şengün is 100% a better defender this season compared to last season, but his rim protection is starting to falter now that we're halfway through the season. I think with him consistently increasing his offensive output, he has to sacrifice the defense in order to do so. Jabari helps that by providing weakside rim protection and guarding the 5 better due to his size. Ime adjusted for that this game by putting double big lineups with Şengün-Adams making up our frontcourt, but once Jabari comes back we won't have to run those kinds of lineups anymore.
Jalen's game today was pretty efficient throughout. He was also just shooting pretty well in the mid-range as well as on the perimeter. I'm starting to just accept that he's young and that his inconsistencies aren't due to a flaw in his game, but instead his age. The skill set he possesses are just too valuable to be put up into trade talks for a role player like Cam Johnson. I have seen in Rockets spaces that they think Whitmore should replace him, which I just highly disagree. First off, just based off statistics, Jalen is overall a better player. Comparing catch and shoot metrics, Jalen shoots C&S three's on a 39.4% clip, while Whitmore shoots a disappointing 32.4%. It's just not sustainable to have him shooting catch and shoots on this kind of poor efficiency.
Second off, Whitmore's body and skill set is just not apt to handle star responsibility. He's a basketball player in a football player's body. Just off biomechanics, his dribble is just not there and he has no flexibility due to his stature to create his own shot. He shoots poorly on spot-ups, on stepbacks, on fadeaways. . .his offensive floor is low, which makes me doubtful he can be the guy he wants to be. What he can be, though, is a play finisher. However bad he is on the catch and shoot three, he's much more proficient on it than isos and off-the-dribble shots. And, because he has such a big body, if he can figure out how to be a cutter, he can be a much better player. But currently, he's trying too much to get his own shot off when really he should be looking to finish plays.
Anyways, I'm not necessarily worried about the Rockets. Remembering what it was like in the Silas years isn't fun, but we've been here before. I'd be happy to finish the season at the 4 seed, considering I had us in the Play-In before the season. We're ahead of schedule and not fully healthy -- these are just growing pains.
In lieu of lamenting our dropping in the standings, here's an Amen Thompson block for good feels.
We are truly blessed people to have witnessed three back-to-back-to-back incredible games. The city of Houston is draped in heavenly light; Space City Home Network is a truly wonderful broadcast -- God bless you Craig Ackerman.
This is that Amen legacy game. He put up the most incredible performance I've seen from him yet; he was everywhere on the court. I think now that we've won against Boston, people are starting to reconsider the 2023 Draft Class. Amen's playmaking, other than the midrange shooting, might have been the highlight of the game. He was driving and hitting crazy kickout passes to the perimeter -- he had this insane kickout to Cam for a three that was just beautiful. And the game-winner. . .I'm moved. He should've 2 in the Draft, but hey, I'm glad he fell to us at 4. It feels so good to have this freak on our team.
And Dillon, man, this might have been the game of his career. Apparently, he's never won against Boston in The Garden, so I'm glad we were able to give him this win. He was shooting the lights out of the ceiling this game. Ten threes is actually mind-blowing -- I never knew that Harden never made eleven before. It's so insane that Brooks is tied for the franchise record in threes made.
Just a great game overall. We always tend to lose our lead in the fourth quarters of games, but we always seem to close them out. Good potential playoff setting practice.
The first Rockets game I attend in-person and it's incredible. I think I screamed the loudest I have ever screamed, save the Dregs concert -- not sure anything will top that for a while. Went with three of my very good friends and we had a blast. Bought an Amen Thompson jersey (my favorite player) and spent roughly $200 today. And it was all worth it to see my boys win against the 2nd best team in the league.
Fred and Amen played incredible games tonight. Fred seems to have cleaned up his game over the season: averaging 48.5% from 3PT range the past 5 games has helped us win those games within that road stretch. He's also distributing the ball more, which is nice compared to the hero ball he would play in crucial quarters at the beginning of the season. It's been pretty clear lately that Fred is needed to run the ship in terms of our offense. Without him at the PG spot, we look disorganized and are more turnover-prone (even though we did have a lot of turnovers this game). Among guards, he's top ten in EPM, which is an advanced metric used to give a number to the impact that players have during any given game. His EPM is a +3.8, and ranks 9th among all guards in the NBA. This is most likely because even at his relatively small, 6'0" stature, he doesn't turn the ball over a lot, which is necessary if you're relegated to being the primary ball handler.
Amen's role currently is to play the forward position in place of Jabari Smith Jr., who's out with a hand injury at the moment. With him starting these past few games, his impact, particularly on the defensive end, is a lot more noticeable. As a wing, he is in the 99th percentile fgOR% at 8.4 and 94th in fgDR% at 15.2 for his position. Because of how elite he is at rebounding, we've been able to open up scoring opportunities within transition -- in fact, I believe that he's the main reason why we're such a good transition offense team.
The clear best players on the other side of the court were Garland and Allen. Watching Allen in person, it's surprising how fast he is for a big man. He had a steal on Fred that led to a fastbreak and-1 and he was zooming down the court. He was flopping all night though -- no hate to him. He was kind of beasting Şengün in the paint, just grabbing offensive rebounds. Garland also had a great night (aside from the free throw choking!) His floater game is no joke; I truly do believe he has the best floater in the NBA. . .maybe besides Lamelo. He's also incredibly fast as well, and his handle is real tight. In my opinion, he looks like a much better offensive force than Mitchell.
When they went on 19-0 run in that third quarter, I was screaming and crying and I couldn't believe it. It seems like our third quarters have been absolute stinkers throughout the season. Our defense also seems to have faltered, I don't know if it's a result of offenses scheming better, but we seem to be more susceptible to confusing defensive assignments or just not defending the pick and roll well. Thank God Garland choked those free throws (90% FT shooter on the season, by the way).
Overall, was an amazing first game in person this season. What an incredible rollercoaster ride. I know Mobley wasn't there, and that definitely would have altered the course of the game, but we also don't have Jabari either. Also, I think Jalen might be injured -- it was weird how timid he was with the ball now, even after his hot streak this month. He stopped attacking zones and is just finishing worse at the rim. Hopefully this is just a fluke; if it's an injury thing he should get some rest!